Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in the Upper Reaches of the Kaidu River Basin Based on a Modified Budyko Framework

The Kaidu River plays an important role in the water development and utilization Tarim basin northwestern China. In this study, we used a modified Budyko framework, which considered snowmelt to analyze attribute runoff change upper based on observations during period of 1960–2010. time series was divided into two periods: 1960–1995 1996–2010. contribution rate between these periods elasticity coefficient were estimated quantify effect climatic variables landscape changes alteration. results show that increase precipitation major cause runoff, whose accounted for 81.42%. lower than change, accounting 9.07%. 1.24, −0.74. Compared with original without considering snowmelt, rates potential evaporation would decrease after while increase. increased snow ratio more fluctuations runoff. This study provides valuable reference resources management deepens our understanding response climate snowmelt-affected regions.